Bird flu drives spike in grocery bills across Washington state
Bird flu outbreaks on farms have led to mass culling, driving egg prices and creating concerns over food safety and supply chain stability.
By: Raghvi Baloni
A new wave of the avian influenza (bird flu) is sweeping through the United States and is pushing egg and milk prices to record highs, with consumers and businesses feeling the economic strain. As millions of birds are culled to contain the outbreak, grocery store shelves are becoming emptier while the cost of everyday products continues to climb.
Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that egg prices have risen dramatically in recent months. At the end of 2024, the average price of eggs hit $4.10 per dozen, which was double what they cost in August 2023.
By January 2025, the price had surged to approximately $4.95 per dozen, a 15 percent increase from the same time last year and five times higher than the overall U.S. inflation rate of 3 percent. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this month that the cost of large grade A eggs is now at its highest point in 45 years, just $0.15 shy of the record set in January 2023.
The primary driver of these price spikes is the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza. Since December 2024, the virus has devastated poultry farms, with 13 million hens lost to culling efforts aimed at containing the spread. Over December and January alone, commercial and backyard chicken owners were forced to cull 41.4 million birds, which is three times the number from the same period one year ago.
The past two months have been the most destructive stretch of the North American bird flu outbreak, which initially arrived three years ago through migrating wild birds from Europe.
The situation worsened when the D1.1 genotype of H5N1 spilled beyond poultry and wild birds, affecting cows and humans. In November, a severe flu case in British Columbia and a recent H5N1-related death in Louisiana, the first in the U.S., highlighted the virus’s evolving threat. On Jan. 31, the USDA announced that the virus was detected in Nevada’s milk supply, with one dairy worker exhibiting mild symptoms of infection.
These developments have sparked concerns about food safety and market stability. Although federal regulations require commercial eggs to be washed and sanitized, reducing the likelihood of virus transmission, farmers face rising production costs due to enhanced biosecurity measures and the need to replenish their flocks with new laying hens.
As a result, some restaurants have resorted to adding per egg surcharges to their menu items, while grocery retailers in certain regions have begun limiting egg purchases to prevent stockpiling and shortages. Beyond pricing adjustments, the egg crisis is shifting consumer behaviour, with reports of people hoarding eggs, considering black-market selling and even resorting to theft. Meanwhile, some restaurants have responded by altering their menus to reduce reliance on egg dishes altogether, offering creative alternatives to overcome the market.
The economic ripple effects of the bird flu outbreak extend beyond eggs. Milk prices have also been impacted, with scientists researching potential human transmission through dairy products.
While the risk to the public remains low, researchers are closely monitoring the virus’s ability to mutate and spread. In one study, monkeys fell ill after drinking raw milk containing the virus, and cats died after consuming tainted milk and uncooked pet food. Northwest Naturals and Monarch Raw Pet Food are the two raw pet food brands with products that contained the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
Economists like Chief Economist Gregory Daco from EY-Parthenon suggest that the January surge in egg prices is likely a one-off event, with increases expected to slow as the year progresses. Still, for millions of consumers grappling with higher food costs, the financial pressure remains significant.
As the U.S. agricultural industry works to contain the outbreak, health officials and farmers alike are urging vigilance, emphasizing the importance of biosecurity practices and careful monitoring of livestock health. Whether this latest wave of bird flu marks a turning point in the ongoing crisis or a precursor to more disruptions remains to be seen.
